Longtime Oregon Lawmaker Kevin Mannix Set to Lose Seat to Michael Wels

Salem, OR. — Republican state Rep. Kevin Mannix is on track to lose the Oregon House seat he won in his 2022 return to the Legislature. Democrat Michael Welsh leads the longtime lawmaker by 1,432 votes in unofficial returns for House District 21, which includes Keizer and parts of Salem.

Welsh, who also received the Working Families Party nomination, had 9,737 votes, or 53.88%, in Marion County’s Nov. 6 tally. Mannix had 8,305 votes, or 45.96%. The count included 28 write-in votes, bringing the total to 18,070. Welsh’s lead grew from 1,175 votes in the county’s early Nov. 4 update.

Mannix told the Statesman Journal on Nov. 4 that he would wait for more results before formally conceding. “The course is pretty clear, and I am disappointed in where it stands now,” he said.

Mannix, a Salem attorney, entered the Oregon House as a Democrat in 1989, later switched parties and served briefly in the state Senate in 1998. He was the Republican nominee for governor in 2002. He returned to the House in 2023 after flipping District 21 from Democratic to Republican control, then won reelection in 2024 by 1,102 votes over Democrat Virginia Stapleton.

Welsh, a Keizer resident who works in occupational safety, centered his campaign on the cost of living. His campaign listed lowering housing and child care costs, strengthening public schools and expanding access to health care among his priorities.