Beneath Oregon’s Blue Wave, a Warning for Democrats

Oregon — Oregon state Sen. Christine Drazan’s attempt to unseat incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek fell short as voters punished Republicans nationwide. As of early this morning, Kotek had received 51.75% of tabulated votes to Drazan’s 45.48%. The count continues, with many received but not yet counted ballots—including large numbers from heavily Democratic Multnomah and Washington counties—still to be included. Our county-based model projects that Kotek’s margin will grow as counting continues.

The national environment was always going to be a key factor in the governor’s race, and it was nearly certain to be bad for Drazan. But the scale of the shellacking voters delivered to the GOP nationally was historic, and Oregon was not immune.

That is not to say Oregon issues, including Kotek’s personal unpopularity and voters’ dissatisfaction with the state’s performance under her leadership, did not matter. Drazan is one of only four Republican gubernatorial candidates whose reported vote shares exceed President Donald Trump’s 2024 shares in their respective states.

Based on this morning’s vote totals, Drazan is outperforming Trump’s 2024 Oregon vote share by 4.51 percentage points, second in the country behind incumbent Republican Phil Scott in Vermont and ahead of incumbent Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire. Scott stands apart from most Republican governors through his embrace of centrist positions, his statements that he voted for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris for president, and his longstanding bond with Vermont voters.

By comparison, Republicans in states such as Texas, Ohio and Iowa performed dramatically worse than Trump did in 2024. For this analysis, I used Trump’s 2024 vote share as a rough proxy for Republican support because some states do not register voters by party.

The graph below shows all four states in which the Republican gubernatorial candidate’s reported vote share exceeded Trump’s. Only selected underperforming states are shown. A link to the full state-by-state comparison, including reported vote totals and projected final counts, appears at the end of this article.

First, Republican candidates’ performance relative to Trump’s 2024 vote share, based on votes counted as of early this morning:

Many ballots remain to be counted, so those vote shares will change. I also modeled projected final vote shares using county-level results and the Associated Press’s estimates of expected final vote totals. The model assumes yet-to-be-counted votes will be split among candidates in roughly the same proportions as votes already counted in each county.

The model projects that Kotek’s margin will increase as the remaining votes are counted, including those from Multnomah and Washington counties. Drazan would still outperform Trump’s 2024 Oregon vote share by 2.61 percentage points. The projection moves her from second to third place nationally, behind Ayotte as well as Scott.

These are projections, and the actual final count will differ. The Oregon–New Hampshire ordering is sensitive to assumptions about the remaining votes. Nonetheless, both the reported results and the projections show Drazan outperforming Trump’s 2024 statewide share and performing substantially better on that measure than most other Republican gubernatorial candidates in 2026.

What it means—and what it doesn’t

In an atrocious national environment for Republicans, Oregon’s Republican gubernatorial nominee received a larger share of the reported vote than the party’s presidential nominee did in 2024, a much better year for the GOP nationally. That relative strength was not enough to overcome the anti-Republican wave that defeated incumbent Republican Greg Abbott in Texas and gave Democrats control of the U.S. House and Senate.

Drazan did not benefit from incumbency, as Ayotte, Scott and South Dakota’s Larry Rhoden did. Rhoden replaced Kristi Noem last year and is only narrowly exceeding Trump’s 2024 vote share in that state. Drazan may have benefited from the familiarity she gained during her 2022 campaign.

In fact, Drazan’s performance relative to Trump’s 2024 statewide vote share was the strongest in the country among Republicans challenging Democratic incumbent governors. Second by that measure was Connecticut’s Ryan Fazio, whom the model projects will underperform Trump’s 2024 share by 0.82 percentage points.

One plausible explanation for Drazan’s relatively strong performance is that she benefited from Kotek’s unpopularity and voters’ belief that Oregon’s struggles are at least partly Kotek’s responsibility. The comparison is consistent with some voters translating dissatisfaction with the state’s direction into support for Drazan, even as the national environment favored Democrats.

This matters because a Drazan loss by a projected margin larger than her 2022 deficit could be interpreted as voters’ unqualified endorsement of the status quo. Her performance relative to Trump gives reason to question that interpretation. A larger share of this year’s electorate supported the Republican candidate for governor than supported Trump for president in 2024, despite a much less favorable national environment for Republicans.

That comparison has limits. Presidential and midterm elections draw different electorates. It also compares different candidates seeking different offices.

Still, Oregon voters’ concerns about their state may have helped Drazan withstand some of the national tide. In a more neutral national environment—or in a midterm election during a Democratic presidency—those concerns might have carried greater weight. The Democratic wave was decisive in Oregon’s governor’s race, even though Drazan performed comparatively well against the Trump benchmark.

The data do not mean Drazan ran a perfect race or that Oregon is poised to elect a Republican governor. But they are consistent with some Oregon voters translating dissatisfaction with the state’s direction into support for a candidate from a deeply unpopular national party.

View the full state ranking and methodology here.

Written By Jeff Eager

I used AI to help identify and summarize four years of original Oregon Roundup reporting for this article. Oregon Roundup does not use AI-drafted content in its original news reporting.

Find the article and more directly from Oregon Roundup https://oregonroundup.substack.com/p/beneath-oregons-blue-wave-a-warning

Republished by Right Now Oregon with Permission from Oregon Roundup. Oregon Roundup Foundation created this article. ORF is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit corporation dedicated to covering Oregon political and government news.