Can Oregon Afford Four More Years of Tina Kotek?

If your ballot for the November election hasn’t arrived, it will soon, as Oregonians decide who will lead our struggling state the next four years.

I’m not in the endorsement business, though I once was. That experience left me somewhat skeptical of the process. The important part of an endorsement isn’t who an institution or person endorses but the reasons. If you disagree with their reasoning or have different priorities, the endorsement really isn’t relevant to you.

With that in mind, I’m offering an alternative to an endorsement: four questions for every Oregon voter to consider. Different people can arrive at different answers; there’s some level of subjectivity to all of the questions, as there is to most political discussions. But if everyone thought through these questions, instead of relying on misleading advertising or party loyalty, I think Oregon would be better off regardless of who wins. An engaged and informed electorate is a first step toward better political results.

The questions, in order of importance:

Can Oregon’s economy survive four more years of Tina Kotek?

The economic report card for Kotek’s first term is alarming. The state is tied for the nation’s highest unemployment rate and the fourth-worst GDP growth rate. One of its most prominent companies, Dutch Bros, moved to Arizona while the two companies that led Oregon’s growth in the 1990s and early 2000s, Nike and Intel, continue to struggle. And many Oregonians have given up hope. A recent poll disturbingly showed that 37 percent of Oregonians are considering moving in the next five years. Worse, the two groups most inclined to move are those 18-29 and those earning $150,000 or more a year, in other words those currently fueling the economy and those who need to be the economic engine of the future.

In my opinion, there’s no debate that Tina Kotek has been a bad steward of the economy. But that doesn’t automatically mean that the state can’t survive another four years. Perhaps she would be open to different economic policies during a second term? Maybe she would get more help from national economic conditions, which haven’t been favorable, neither during the Biden years nor the Trump years. Or maybe, unlike me, you agree with her policies and think she just needs more time.

I have arguments against each of those excuses, but, like I said before, the answers to all of these questions are somewhat subjective. So, it’s fair to argue otherwise. However, I suspect a significant percentage of Kotek’s supporters don’t care that much about traditional economic measures, which leads to my next question for voters.

What matters more to you, a governor who agrees with you on cultural issues or one who can effectively manage the state’s economy and state agencies?

At a time when many voters are driven by ideology, identity politics, party loyalty (often in the form of negative partisanship) and candidates’ personalities, the state of the economy does not influence general elections as much as it used to – especially in hyper-partisan states. This is especially true for many in the base of both parties and is a significant factor in the governor’s race.

Even Democrats who criticize Kotek’s handling of the economy and some of her management decisions tend to agree with her on cultural issues. This is true both of those who don’t think her economic policies are progressive enough and those to her right who think her policies are strangling the economy.

In contrast, cultural issues are tricky for Drazan. She has de-emphasized them in her campaign, but the result of that strategy appears to be that no one really trusts her on these issues, particularly abortion. Her statements about being pro-life scare Democrats and pro-choice Republicans, while comments that she’ll follow state law and there’s nothing she can do about abortion upset some conservative Republicans.

Do you think Oregon citizens will be more vulnerable to decisions made and actions taken by President Trump if a Republican is governor?

Kotek has built her campaign on the assumption that a majority of Oregons answer this question “yes” and assume that those actions will be worse for the state than any economic consequences of re-electing her. She might be right.

For many Oregonians, voting against anyone associated with Trump (and being a Republican who hasn’t publicly rebuked him counts) is a matter of principle. For those voters, there’s really nothing to debate. For those who are more pragmatic, I would argue that the posturing by Oregon politicians has done little, if anything, to protect the state. Trump still sent ICE and other federal officers to Portland until he tired of the effort and/or publicity. State laws protect abortion and other rights. Most of the “stands” Oregon has taken against Trump have been in cooperation with other states. One less state joining the effort wouldn’t have made a difference.

Plus, Trump probably would be less likely to meddle in Oregon if it had a Republican governor.

What changes, if any, will Christine Drazan be able to make if she is governor and Democrats retain control of the House and Senate?

This is an important question to both Republicans and Democrats for different reasons.

Democrats who are reluctantly considering backing Drazan can take comfort in the fact she is limited in what she can do without support of a Legislature that will remain overwhelmingly Democrat. She can ease regulatory burdens for business through the actions of state agencies, which have a lot of discretionary power. But even that won’t be easy, considering those agencies have been staffed and trained by Democrats for almost four decades.

Drazan’s biggest legacy probably would be a torrent of vetoes. It requires a two-thirds vote of both the House and Senate to override a veto, more than the 60 percent needed for new taxes. Democrats are unlikely to reach that threshold, though it’s not impossible.

For the same reasons that Democrats shouldn’t fear widespread changes in civil liberties and other rights and policies if Drazan wins, Republicans should be realistic about what they can expect.

A realistic summary of what is at stake in the election:

A Drazan win means no new state taxes, a friendlier regulatory environment, more oversight of state agencies and a fresh look at education policy.

A Kotek win means continued efforts to raise new revenue, whether through taxes or fees, more press releases about Trump, more task forces, no meaningful positive changes in the business climate and education policy dictated by the teachers union.

Oregonians expecting more than that from either candidate likely will be disappointed.

By Mark Hester
Mark worked 20 years at The Oregonian in positions including business editor & editorial writer. He is regular contributor to Oregon Roundup.

Find the article and more directly from Oregon Roundup https://oregonroundup.substack.com/p/can-oregon-afford-four-more-years

Republished by Right Now Oregon with Permission from Oregon Roundup. Oregon Roundup Foundation created this article. ORF is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit corporation dedicated to covering Oregon political and government news.