Oregon is reducing energy security to address future climate fears while neglecting the earthquake and infrastructure collapse scientists know will come.
A magnitude 5.6 earthquake off Vancouver Island on July 19 was not a prediction of the next Cascadia earthquake. Scientists cannot tell us whether the “Big One” will strike next week, next year or decades from now. What they can tell us is that the Cascadia Subduction Zone has produced devastating earthquakes before and will eventually do so again.
The last full-margin Cascadia earthquake occurred on January 26, 1700. Geological evidence shows the Pacific Northwest has repeatedly experienced magnitude 8 and 9 earthquakes, accompanied by prolonged shaking, landslides, liquefaction and destructive tsunamis. The U.S. Geological Survey currently estimates roughly a 10% to 15% chance of a full-margin magnitude 9 event within the next 50 years, with a higher probability of a major partial rupture in southern Cascadia.
That is not something Oregon can prevent. What our leaders can control is whether the state is capable of responding when it happens.
Unfortunately, the evidence suggests Oregon is far better at studying disaster than preparing for it.
Oregon’s Three-Day Buffer
John Payson recently highlighted this vulnerability in his Substack article, “Three Days of Fuel.” Using Oregon’s own emergency-planning information, Payson noted that the state generally has only about three to five days of gasoline and diesel stored at any given time.
More than 90% of Oregon’s gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel moves through a six-mile stretch of Northwest Portland known as the Critical Energy Infrastructure Hub. The area contains hundreds of bulk fuel tanks, pipelines, loading facilities, electrical equipment and other infrastructure concentrated along the Willamette River.
Oregon has no petroleum refinery of its own. Most of our transportation fuel comes from Washington refineries through the Olympic Pipeline or by ship. It enters the Portland hub, then moves south toward Eugene and onward by truck to Central, Southern and Eastern Oregon.
That system is efficient when everything works. It becomes dangerously fragile when anything fails.
Oregonians received a warning in 2025 when leaks and shutdowns along the Olympic Pipeline disrupted fuel supplies and contributed to price spikes. Those incidents occurred while highways, bridges, electric systems, terminals and refineries were otherwise functioning normally. A Cascadia earthquake would likely damage many of those systems simultaneously.
Fuel would not merely be needed by commuters. Diesel would be required for ambulances, fire engines, hospital generators, utility trucks, excavators, food deliveries, emergency communications and debris removal. Without fuel, rescue and recovery quickly grind to a halt.
Oregon Has Concentrated Its Lifeline in the Worst Possible Place
The Portland fuel hub sits on unstable soils that are expected to liquefy during a major earthquake. Many of the tanks were constructed before modern seismic standards and before the Cascadia threat was fully understood.
Multnomah County has estimated that a major earthquake could release tens of millions—or potentially more than 100 million—gallons of fuel and hazardous materials. Fires, ruptured pipelines and spills could contaminate the Willamette and Columbia rivers while simultaneously disabling the infrastructure Oregon would need to begin its recovery.
This is a genuine threat, and Portland is right to be concerned about it.
The problem is the proposed solution.
Portland’s Planning Commission has recommended reducing in-service fuel-storage capacity at the hub by at least 20% by 2036. The theory is that less fuel stored on unstable ground would mean less fuel available to spill during an earthquake.
That sounds reasonable until the other half of the equation is considered: Oregon has not built equivalent hardened storage elsewhere.
Reducing dangerous storage without replacing it with safer, geographically distributed capacity does not create resilience. It simply trades the risk of a catastrophic spill for the risk of running out of fuel during the catastrophe.
Government Is Focused on the Wrong End of the Problem
Portland is also rapidly increasing its renewable-fuel requirements, with diesel sold in the city now required to contain much larger percentages of renewable fuel. At the same time, city planners assume overall fuel demand will fall enough to justify shrinking storage capacity.
Perhaps those forecasts will prove accurate. Perhaps electric vehicles and renewable fuels will eventually reduce petroleum consumption substantially.
But forecasts are not emergency reserves.
Oregon leaders spend enormous time debating carbon targets, fuel mandates and climate projections decades into the future. Meanwhile, the state’s own emergency plans have warned for more than a decade that our fuel system is dangerously concentrated and lacks geographic redundancy.
Climate policy and disaster preparedness do not have to be enemies. Oregon can pursue cleaner energy while also maintaining adequate fuel reserves, hardened storage, backup generation and alternate supply routes.
What it cannot safely do is reduce real energy capacity today based on optimistic assumptions about tomorrow.
A hospital generator does not run on a climate plan. A fire engine does not move on a press release. A utility crew cannot restore power with a spreadsheet predicting lower gasoline demand in 2035.
Oregon Has Studied the Problem Long Enough
Oregon’s 2013 Resilience Plan recommended diversifying fuel storage, strengthening critical infrastructure and establishing alternate supply routes. Later reports repeated many of the same warnings. Legislative proposals to study or develop geographically distributed fuel storage have repeatedly failed to become meaningful infrastructure.
We have commissioned studies, created task forces, written reports and held public hearings. What Oregon has not done is move enough fuel-storage capacity away from Portland, harden critical terminals, build emergency reserves around the state or ensure reliable alternate supply routes from California, Nevada, Idaho or Utah.
Oregon government has become remarkably good at documenting what will go wrong.
That is not the same as preventing it.
Prepare as Though Help Will Be Delayed
Oregon tells residents to be prepared to survive for at least two weeks without normal services. That is good advice, and people should take it seriously.
Families should store water, food, medication, flashlights, batteries, sanitation supplies and basic first-aid materials. Keep some cash available because electronic payment systems may fail. Maintain a battery-powered radio, portable chargers and printed emergency contacts. Keep vehicles reasonably fueled instead of habitually driving on empty.
Secure tall furniture, water heaters and heavy objects inside the home. Know how to shut off utilities. Coastal residents should know their tsunami evacuation routes and understand that strong or prolonged shaking is the warning to move immediately toward high ground.
Households with generators should maintain them, test them and store fuel legally and safely. Those dependent on refrigerated medicine, oxygen or powered medical equipment need a backup plan that does not assume electricity will return quickly.
Most importantly, develop relationships with neighbors. Government assistance may be delayed for days or weeks. Roads may be blocked, communications may fail and emergency responders may be overwhelmed. Your most immediate source of help may be the person living next door.
Accountability Is Also Part of Preparedness
Personal responsibility matters, but citizens should not allow government to shift the entire burden onto individual households.
Oregonians cannot build pipelines, reinforce bridges, relocate fuel terminals or establish statewide reserves. Those are government responsibilities.
Residents should demand that any reduction in Portland fuel-storage capacity be matched by equivalent or greater hardened capacity elsewhere. They should demand regional emergency reserves, backup energy for hospitals and water systems, alternate transportation corridors and measurable deadlines for completing seismic upgrades.
The next earthquake will not care how many climate resolutions Oregon has adopted or how many resilience reports are sitting on a shelf.
When the ground moves, government may not be able to reach you. That is why families must prepare for the worst—and why voters must hold leaders accountable before the worst arrives.
Because when everything hits the fan, it will be too late to discover that Oregon had a plan for reducing fuel, but not a plan for keeping the state supplied.
That’s my Viewpoint, check out my other opinions over at Ben’s Viewpoint on Substack.
Sources and Further Reading
John Payson, “Three Days of Fuel,” Central Oregon Policy Watch
Oregon Department of Energy — Oregon’s Energy System and Emergency Fuel Information
https://energyinfo.oregon.gov/overview
https://energyinfo.oregon.gov/emergencies
Oregon Resilience Plan — Energy Systems
https://www.oregon.gov/oem/documents/06_orp_energy.pdf
Multnomah County — Critical Energy Infrastructure Hub Seismic Risk Analysis
https://multco.us/info/cei-hub-seismic-risk-analysis
City of Portland — Critical Energy Infrastructure Hub Policy Project
https://www.portland.gov/bps/planning/cei-hub
Stillwater Associates — Portland’s 20% Storage Drawdown
https://stillwaterassociates.com/portlands-20-storage-drawdown-a-question-of-demand-and-flexibility/
OPIS — Proposed Policies to Reduce Oregon Fuel Supply Capacity by 20%
https://www.opis.com/resources/energy-market-news-from-opis/proposed-policies-to-reduce-oregon-fuel-supply-capacity-by-20/
U.S. Geological Survey — Cascadia Earthquake Probabilities and Hazards
https://www.usgs.gov/publications/earthquake-probabilities-and-hazards-us-pacific-northwest
Oregon Department of Emergency Management — Two Weeks Ready
https://www.oregon.gov/oem/hazardsprep/pages/2-weeks-ready.aspx
Pacific Northwest Earthquake Tracker
https://pnsn.org/earthquakes/recent
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