McHaddad: Republicans Need to Avoid the Dennis Richardson Trap

The last Republican to win a statewide election in Oregon was Dennis Richardson. In 2016, the former legislator and one-time gubernatorial candidate was elected Secretary of State, serving just half of his term before his untimely death from cancer. Richardson campaigned almost exclusively in the Willamette Valley, focusing heavily on the Portland Metro area. And every statewide nominee since then learned the wrong lesson from his victory.

Richardson’s campaign for Governor in 2014 was key to his election in 2016. He ran on themes of transparency and accountability that were immediately relevant in the next election when Governor John Kitzhaber resigned due to a public corruption scandal. Thematically, Richardson was already a primed to be the anti-corruption voice in the aftermath.

Equally as important to Richardson’s anti-corruption profile was relationships. Richardson had built friendships with his fellow legislators and community leaders all over the state 2014. In the short window between the two campaigns, his network of allies was able to maintain the momentum necessary to keep rural voters in his coalition while he focused on moderate and undecided voters in metro areas. The relationships and the campaign themes built the coalition necessary for Dennis to become the first Republican to win a statewide campaign since 2002.

Every statewide Republican candidate since Richardson has chosen to ignore the importance of relationships with voters in outlying communities. All the consultants saw in 2016 was a myopic focus on the Portland metro area and Willamette Valley, prioritizing prejudicial disengagement with Eastern Oregon conservatives in later elections as a result. Both Knute Buehler in 2018 and Christine Drazan in 2022 lost their campaigns by a popular vote margin far smaller than the total number of Republicans who did not vote. Buehler lost by 119,000 votes; 133,000 Republicans did not vote. Drazan lost by 66,000 votes; 126,000 Republicans did not vote.

One Oregon Republican has already started the work of building goodwill with rural communities. State Senator David Brock Smith, the GOP nominee for US Senate, went on a whirlwind tour during the primary and connected with influential community members across the state. Visiting rural communities during the general election cycle this fall will be helpful, but Senator Smith has already put in the relationship-building work necessary to justify spending the overwhelming majority of his efforts in the Valley and Portland metro area, thus avoiding the Dennis Richardson trap.

I will knock on doors for all Republican candidates this fall because I am an elected Precinct Committee Person for Union County Republicans. I will encourage my neighbors to vote for David Brock Smith for Senate, Congressman Cliff Bentz, Christine Drazan for Governor, Representative Bobby Levy, and Commissioner Matt Scarfo. These candidates need more than just volunteer efforts to win, however. Voters need to seem them in their community to know that candidates care about them. Focusing solely on urban areas will get you many of the votes you need to win statewide, but not all of them. If Republican candidates want a chance at winning this fall, they cannot leave rural voters behind, or else they will fall victim to the Dennis Richardson trap.