Few popular quotes have had more staying power than “lies, damn lies and statistics.” The phrase was popularized in the United States by Mark Twain in the early 1900s, though historians debate where and when it actually originated.
In the current era of “alternative facts,” the thought behind the phrase probably has never been more embraced by the public; just because something sounds official and has math and science behind it, that doesn’t mean you should trust it.
I’m writing on this now because we are entering election season, with primaries later this month. You’ll hear lots of statistics, as well as lies and damn lies, and you probably could use some help distinguishing between the three.
Personally, I’m a fan of statistics. It was my favorite class in graduate school. But I’ll acknowledge that because there are so many statistics, it’s easy to use them out of context to “prove” points in a misleading way. The best way to avoid being misled is to find the source of statistics, put them in context and make your own decisions.
I applied this approach to Oregon’s economy, which should be the No. 1 issue in state elections. I looked specifically at employment statistics, and you are not being misled when people tell you the Oregon economy is struggling. Almost all the statistics are negative.
Consider employment by job sector. The most recent statistics from the Oregon Employment Department show Oregon ranking 48th out of 50 states in overall non-farm job growth. When it comes to employment by sector, Oregon is losing jobs in all but two sectors, health services and leisure and hospitality.
Let’s start by looking at our best sectors, because even the most positive news in the employment report comes accompanied by dark clouds.
First, if you had to pick one sector to excel at, it would be health care. They are important jobs that pay well overall (though not in some common, lower-end positions) and it’s one of the biggest job categories. Health care jobs have increased at twice the rate of overall jobs over the past 25 years. Almost 15 percent of Oregon workers are employed in health care. And this is the only job sector, as defined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in which Oregon ranked among the top 10 states for growth in the past year. (Note: For some reason, BLS lumps private education with health services but all the growth in this category came from health.)
Now, let’s look at the context. Health care jobs are increasing almost everywhere in the U.S. They’ve increased faster than the national average in Oregon, in part because we have funded Medicaid at higher levels than many states. If you ignore fraud, it’s possible to argue that’s a good thing. But it also means we’re adding jobs for reasons other than a high-functioning economy, which Oregon definitely does not have.
The context for Oregon’s other positive-performing job sector is even worse. Leisure & hospitality is up in part because it’s still recovering from the Covid-era plunge in travel. Worse, the gains probably will end soon if gas prices continue to rise due to the war in Iran. And worse yet, leisure and hospitality in one of the lowest-paying job sectors.
Now, let’s look at the negative areas, in other words every other private-sector job category.
Construction jobs declined by 3.4 percent, the biggest drop in the nation. We ranked 48th in job growth in business and professional services, 47th in financial activities, 46th in manufacturing and trade, transportation and utilities. Of course, when you are losing jobs instead of adding them, you should expect to rank near the bottom of job-growth rankings.
To avoid mixing and matching statistics, I’ve limited my analysis to the Employment Department’s April report on BLS job categories. There are many other negative economic reports, some of which I’ve written on before. Conversely, it’s virtually impossible to come up with any “alternative facts” that portray the Oregon economy in a positive light.
Democrats likely will try to blame President Trump for Oregon’s economic descent. It’s certainly fair to say that tariffs hurt a trade-dependent state like Oregon and higher fuel prices, as a result of the Iran war, hurt everyone. But Trump policies don’t explain why Oregon is in the bottom 10 of job-growth rankings in most employment sectors, underperforming in education, and taxing citizens more than almost every other state. If it was all Trump, the pain would be spread more evenly among states.
No matter how you dice the statistics, Oregon’s economy is underperforming most of the nation. And no matter who or what you choose to blame, many of the problems can be traced to policies that originated in Salem, not in Washington, D.C.
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