U.S. Opioid Deaths Drop Below 2017 Levels as Federal Analyses Track Reduced Prescribing, Expanded Treatment

Opioid overdose deaths declined in 2025 as prescription opioid use continued falling and more patients received medications used to treat substance use disorders, according to federal analyses highlighted Oct. 27 by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced the findings at Detroit Wayne Integrated Health Network, crediting President Donald Trump’s prescribing, enforcement and treatment policies. The accompanying research describes changes extending across multiple presidential administrations.

Provisional CDC estimates cited in the Health Affairs Forefront analysis show deaths involving opioids fell from 55,296 in 2024 to 44,564 in 2025, a decrease of approximately 19%. The 2025 estimate was below the 47,600 deaths recorded in 2017, when Trump declared the opioid crisis a public health emergency. The figures remain subject to revision.

A separate analysis from HHS’s Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation examined the nation’s overall mortality rate. The provisional age-adjusted death rate reached 689.2 deaths per 100,000 people in 2025, down 4.6% from the final 2024 rate of 722.1.

That measure covers deaths from all causes, rather than opioid deaths alone. Age adjustment allows comparisons across years while accounting for differences in the population’s age distribution.

The pharmacy analysis examined population-adjusted dispensing trends from March 2015 through March 2026. Over that period, opioid prescriptions fell 54.7%, total dosage dispensed declined 64.8%, and the number of patients receiving prescription opioids through retail pharmacies dropped 50.4%.

Meanwhile, the number of patients filling retail prescriptions for buprenorphine or naltrexone increased 118%, reaching more than twice the March 2015 level.

The authors cautioned that reduced prescribing alone does not sufficiently explain recent mortality declines, particularly given the role of illicit fentanyl. Their treatment data also exclude methadone dispensed through opioid treatment programs.

The analysis discusses several policy changes, including CDC prescribing guidelines issued in 2016 and 2022, the 2018 SUPPORT Act signed by Trump, and legislation enacted in 2022 that removed a federal waiver requirement for prescribing buprenorphine.

HHS also highlighted the 2025 SUPPORT Act reauthorization, federal efforts targeting fentanyl trafficking and the Great American Recovery Initiative launched in January 2026 to coordinate prevention, treatment and recovery programs.

“Those actions are saving lives and driving opioid deaths to the lowest in nearly a decade,” Kennedy said.

The administration attributed the improvement to Trump’s policies, but the figures presented in its announcement do not establish how much of the decline resulted from any individual policy.