Oregon Ballot Returns Top 1 Million with Republican Ballot Returns Trailing Democrats by 45% to 46%

Oregon — Oregon voters returned more than 1 million ballots by October 29, with estimated participation approaching 46% among registered Democrats and 45% among Republicans, while nonaffiliated voters lagged at approximately 18.5%.

The “Oregon Secretary of State’s unofficial ballot-return report” (https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/2026-general-election-unofficial-ballot-returns.pdf), generated October 29 at 3:59 p.m., recorded 1,074,930 ballots received, or 34.48% of active registered voters.

Democrats returned 453,810 ballots, Republicans 332,872 and nonaffiliated voters 213,709. Independent Party voters returned another 58,324. Democrats accounted for 42.22% of all ballots received, compared with Republicans’ 30.97%.

Comparing those returns with the state’s “October voter registration totals” (https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/Registration/2026-October.pdf) produces estimated return rates of 45.89% for Democrats, 45.13% for Republicans, 37.66% for Independent Party voters and 18.50% for nonaffiliated voters. Democrats’ estimated participation rate was approximately 0.76 percentage points higher than Republicans’.

Voter affiliation| Registered voters, October report| Ballots returned| Estimated return rate within affiliation| Share of all returns
Democratic| 988,951| 453,810| 45.89%| 42.22%
Republican| 737,559| 332,872| 45.13%| 30.97%
Nonaffiliated| 1,154,924| 213,709| 18.50%| 19.88%
Independent| 154,873| 58,324| 37.66%| 5.43%
Libertarian| 18,752| 4,597| 24.51%| 0.43%
Other| 17,419| 4,593| 26.37%| 0.43%
Pacific Green| 7,727| 2,377| 30.76%| 0.22%
Working Families| 8,519| 1,798| 21.11%| 0.17%
No Labels| 10,070| 1,572| 15.61%| 0.15%
Progressive| 4,471| 1,278| 28.58%| 0.12%

Percentages calculated from Secretary of State reports; rounding may affect totals.

The party-specific rates are estimates because the registration report, prepared October 5, lists 3,103,265 voters, while the ballot-return report uses an October 16 snapshot of 3,117,439 active voters. The latter report’s statewide return rate is 34.48%.

Return rates measure participation within each registration group. Shares of returns describe how much of the overall ballot total each group represents. Neither reveals which candidates voters supported.

Latest available polls show competitive governor’s race

The latest publicly released polls located as of October 30 were released October 8 and showed Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek narrowly ahead of Republican Christine Drazan. Those surveys were conducted several weeks before the latest ballot-return figures.

A DHM Research survey commissioned by The Oregonian/OregonLive, conducted September 24 through October 1 among 549 likely voters, found Kotek at 46% and Drazan at 44%. Pacific Green candidate Brett Smith received 3%, while 7% were undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

A GBAO survey commissioned by Kotek’s campaign, conducted October 1–4 among 800 likely voters, put Kotek at 46%, Drazan at 42%, Smith at 6% and undecided voters at 6%. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Kotek’s campaign released a polling memo, but not detailed results, according to “OPB’s reporting” (https://www.opb.org/article/2026/10/08/new-polls-kotek-may-lead/).

An earlier “DHM Research poll commissioned by OPB” (https://www.opb.org/pressroom/oregon-governors-race-remains-tight-with-share-of-undecideds-shrinking-according-to-new-opb-commissioned-poll/), conducted September 17–27 among 915 likely voters, found Drazan ahead 47% to 46% after including undecided voters’ leanings. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.24 percentage points.

The narrow polling margins leave uncertainty about the outcome. Democrats’ numerical advantage in returned ballots does not establish a Kotek lead, just as Republican participation does not translate directly into Drazan votes. Voters may cross party lines, and nonaffiliated voters’ choices remain unknown.