Tina Kotek earned her disapproval numbers, but will it matter?

It’s hard to be a popular governor these days, but Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek stands out in her ability to be unpopular.

Kotek is tied with Oklahoma Governor Kevin Sitt and Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen for the fourth lowest overall approval rating (the difference between those who approve and disapprove of a governor’s performance) at plus 6 percent. Only two governors, Alaska’s Mike Dunleavy and Iowa’s Kim Reynolds, have a negative approval ranking.

Kotek is the only Democrat among the six lowest rated governors, and that is significant. Kotek’s entire campaign is based on attacking President Donald Trump and tying Drazan to him. It’s not a bad strategy given Trump’s approval ratings and the difficult governor races Republicans face even in some red states.

But there are two major flaws in Kotek’s strategy. First, Drazan isn’t governor and can’t be tied to Trump as easily as incumbents in red states – especially since she is moderate by current Republican standards and had at best lukewarm support from the MAGA wing of the Republican Party in the primary. Second, unlike Democrats running in states with unpopular Republican governors, Kotek is an incumbent – and her record is horrible.

In summary, Republicans are weighed down by an unpopular president, while Democrats get free bonus points from the public for not being aligned with Trump. Among Democratic governors, Kotek is the least popular – and she accomplished this feat in a state where Trump has a net disapproval score of 26 points.

Other relatively unpopular Democratic governors can point to extenuating circumstances. Maine Gov. Janet Mills is in a state that is more closely divided politically than Oregon is. New York Governor Kathy Hochul, formerly lieutenant governor, ascended to the governor’s office without an election after Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned amid scandal. She has since won reelection. Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee has been hurt by a scandal surrounding a major bridge project that affected the commutes of a significant percentage of voters in the tiny state.

Kotek hasn’t been immune from scandal. But her choice to put her wife in positions that even staff members (some of whom resigned) didn’t think she was qualified for affected far fewer people than McKee’s bridge fiasco and produced far less outrage than the sexual harassment allegations Cuomo faced. Kotek’s primary problems are that she has failed to fulfill any of her campaign promises, has overseen the steepest decline in Oregon’s economy in decades and has managed her staff and the Legislature in a way that has produced more enemies than friends.

That trifecta will produce low approval numbers in any state. In fact, the huge irony in Kotek’s campaign approach is that she is one of few politicians with disapproval numbers that rival Trump’s.

There aren’t a lot of past examples to draw from when predicting how Kotek will fare. Most similarly unpopular governors who got re-elected either were Republicans in red states or Democrats in swing states. The closest parallel might be Kotek’s predecessor Kate Brown. When she ran for re-election in 2018, she was among the least popular governors, Donald Trump was in his first term as president, and Oregon Republicans nominated a moderate, Knute Buehler, to oppose her.

Drazan has some advantages Buehler didn’t. Though she wasn’t the first choice of the most conservative Republicans, she generally is more accepted by that wing of the party than Buehler was. Oregon’s economic and educational rankings are much worse now than they were in 2018 – and that’s saying something. And Brown had a more affable personality that offered advantages on the campaign trail over Kotek’s more combative persona.

Is that enough to swing this election to a Republican? That comes down to whether Drazan can convince at least 30,000 to 40,000 normally Democratic voters that performance matters more than party allegiance. It won’t be easy, but it might be doable.

By Mark Hester
Mark worked 20 years at The Oregonian in positions including business editor & editorial writer. He is regular contributor to Oregon Roundup.

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Republished by Right Now Oregon with Permission from Oregon Roundup. Oregon Roundup Foundation created this article. ORF is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit corporation dedicated to covering Oregon political and government news.