Poll Finds Drazan With Slight Lead Over Kotek as 59% Disapprove of Governor’s Performance

Oregon — Republican Christine Drazan holds a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in a new poll of likely Oregon voters, although the difference falls within the survey’s margin of error.

The Sept. 11 survey, conducted by Portland-based DHM Research for the business-backed organization Grow Oregon, found 45% of respondents supporting Drazan and 43% supporting Kotek. Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith received 4%.

The poll surveyed 600 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, meaning the results do not establish that either candidate is statistically ahead.

The Oregon Journalism Project, which reported that it obtained the poll unofficially, said 13% of voters remained undecided. However, that figure does not reconcile with the publicly reported candidate percentages, which total 92%. Complete polling materials, including the questionnaire, field dates and detailed methodology, were not included in either published report.

The Daily Wire characterized the results as a “shock poll” because Oregon voters have elected Democratic governors in every election since 1986. The Oregon Journalism Project described the contest as a toss-up because Drazan’s two-point advantage is smaller than the margin of error.

“This poll confirms what we already see on the ground: Oregonians are ready for change, and they see Christine as the leader who can deliver it,” Drazan campaign strategist Trey Rosser told the Oregon Journalism Project.

Rosser criticized Kotek’s record on homelessness, housing, education and affordability, arguing that Oregonians are “paying more, getting less” four years after the governor made campaign promises addressing those issues.

Kotek campaign spokesman Federico Araujo emphasized the number of voters who had not selected a candidate and sought to contrast Kotek with President Donald Trump.

“There are still a lot of voters who are undecided in this race, but the choice couldn’t be any clearer,” Araujo told the Oregon Journalism Project. He said Drazan would “open the door to Trump’s agenda,” while Kotek was working to protect Oregon from federal actions.

The survey also found substantial dissatisfaction with Kotek’s performance. According to the Oregon Journalism Project, 59% disapproved of her job performance and 37% approved. Fifty-eight percent said Oregon was on the wrong track.

Affordability ranked as the most prominent concern, with 87% calling it extremely or very important. K-12 education followed at 85%, housing affordability at 78%, taxes and homelessness at 77% each, and crime at 73%. Data centers, which have received increased political attention, were considered extremely or very important by 50%.

The results are generally consistent with an earlier poll released by Drazan’s campaign. That June survey of 600 Oregon voters found Drazan leading Kotek 48% to 44%, according to Jefferson Public Radio. Because that poll was commissioned by the Drazan campaign and only high-level findings were released, its results also warrant caution.

DHM pollster John Horvick told the Oregon Journalism Project that previous Oregon Republican gubernatorial candidates have led in surveys before ultimately losing. Polls showed Drazan competitive with Kotek during much of the 2022 campaign, but Kotek won with approximately 47% of the vote to Drazan’s 43.5%. Unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson received nearly 9%.

Campaign money could also shape the closing weeks. The Oregon Journalism Project reported that Kotek had raised nearly $12 million since the beginning of 2025 and had $8.2 million available. Drazan had raised approximately $9.4 million but had $2.4 million on hand after facing a competitive Republican primary.

The candidates are scheduled to debate Oct. 1 at the University of Oregon. The general election is Nov. 3.