Oregon — Ranchers remain cautiously optimistic even as the beef market evolves. According to a recent article in Capital Press, calf and cattle prices hit record highs this summer, driven by “record low inventory and strong beef demand” according to reporting from Capital Press. However, many producers are selling heifers instead of holding them for herd expansion, delaying a recovery in U.S. cattle numbers.
At the CattleFax presentation during the 2025 Oregon Cattlemen’s Association and Oregon Cattlewomen convention, as reported by Baker City Herald, analyst Patrick Linnell said “the beef cycle has turned,” predicting a modest drop in fed cattle prices to around $212 to $215 per hundredweight in 2026, but emphasized prices will remain “elevated at historic levels”.
What Is Driving the Shift
Tight Herd Inventories
The national herd remains at one of its smallest levels in decades. Many cow calf producers are cashing in by selling breeding animals rather than retaining heifers for rebuilding.
Strong Demand and Heavier Cattle
Although herd numbers are low, improvements in genetics and feeding practices mean each animal yields more beef, helping stabilize total production despite fewer cows.
Gradual Herd Rebuilding
Linnell described herd recovery as slow and steady, estimating a possible 100,000 head increase in beef cow inventories in 2026, with full rebuilding taking years to complete.
Market Data Snapshot
The Federal Reserve’s beef price index reflects the broader market trend and shows the elevated retail pricing environment ranchers and consumers continue to navigate, showing substantive increases in price the past 10 years including a 48% increase since 2020.
Takeaway for Ranchers and Consumers
For ranchers, 2025 and 2026 may offer continued strong returns for cow calf operations, although herd rebuilding will likely stretch over several years. For consumers, beef prices may ease slightly but are expected to remain historically high as supply remains tight and demand steady.
If you would like, I can also create a forecast chart based on the FRED data series to illustrate projected beef price trends.
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