Oregon — Oregon’s top state economists delivered the final quarterly revenue and economic outlook of 2025 on Wednesday, presenting a mixed fiscal picture that shows improving revenue performance but continued signs of strain across the broader economy.
Carl Riccadonna, the state’s chief economist, and Michael Kennedy, senior economist with the Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), briefed the Legislature’s House and Senate revenue committees on the latest forecast. The quarterly projections guide state budget planning and help lawmakers understand expected tax collections and economic conditions.
Revenue Picture Improves, But Uncertainty Remains
According to OEA, the 2025–27 revenue forecast increased by $309.5 million, driven primarily by stronger-than-expected Corporate Income Tax collections. Corporate tax receipts—historically volatile—accounted for much of the unexpected lift.
Mild improvements in economic conditions produced smaller gains across other revenue sources, and Oregon’s projected General Fund ending balance also improved substantially. What had been a $372.7 million deficit in the prior forecast is now projected at $63.1 million.
Forecasters noted that the Q4–December outlook was complicated by gaps in federal data caused by the ongoing federal government shutdown, but said indicators show sustained resilience both nationally and within Oregon. Recession risks appear to be easing, and projections for 2026 have strengthened modestly.
State Elected Officials React
Following the briefing, House Republican Leader Lucetta Elmer (R-McMinnville) criticized the underlying economic picture, pointing to major job losses announced this week by Intel and Providence Oregon.
“Despite the improvement in Oregon’s financial standing, a deficit of any size is a problem, and Oregonians are feeling the pinch,” Elmer said. She highlighted recent layoffs—Intel cutting Oregon jobs to bring losses above 3,000 for the year, and Providence eliminating more than 150 positions—as signs that the economy remains unstable.
Elmer also cited recent polling showing voter pessimism about the state’s direction, concerns over taxes, and fears of job scarcity.
“Oregon’s rising unemployment numbers and high taxes are harming families and forcing businesses to leave our state,” she said. “If we want to see our budget grow, we must cut taxes and create an economic climate where businesses can thrive and grow—not fear loss and decline.”
Governor Kotek: Economic Strength, but Families Still Struggling
Gov. Tina Kotek issued her own response, emphasizing economic resilience but warning that many households remain under financial pressure.
“While this forecast reflects the resilience of Oregon’s overall economy, my focus remains on the people who are struggling right now,” Kotek said from Eugene.
She criticized federal actions under President Donald Trump that she said threaten Oregon families through reductions in food assistance, health care, and other supports. “We must hold the line against President Trump’s attacks on working families,” she said.
Kotek urged policymakers to continue addressing rising costs and to “come together intentionally to ensure we create jobs and chart a path for a stronger economy.”
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