Oregon — As Oregon looks ahead to the 2026 gubernatorial election, the Republican Party finds itself confronting a familiar challenge: how to win a statewide race in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1982. With nearly four decades of Democratic dominance and voter turnout trends that consistently favor Democratic candidates in key urban counties, the GOP is once again seeking a path to competitiveness.
Historical Headwinds
In recent election cycles, Oregon gubernatorial races have shown a consistent Democratic advantage. In 2022, Democrat Tina Kotek narrowly defeated Republican Christine Drazan with 917,074 votes to Drazan’s 850,347, while unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson captured 168,431 votes. Although the race was tighter than in years past, the outcome extended the Democratic winning streak to ten consecutive gubernatorial contests.
The 2018 race saw then-incumbent Democrat Kate Brown defeat Republican Knute Buehler 934,498 to 814,988. In 2014, Brown’s predecessor John Kitzhaber won reelection with 812,212 votes to Republican Dennis Richardson’s 697,774. Across these three cycles, Democrats have consistently outperformed Republicans by margins of 6–8 percentage points, often buoyed by strong turnout in Multnomah, Washington, and Lane counties.
Voter Registration and Turnout Dynamics
Adding to the GOP’s challenge is the composition and behavior of Oregon’s electorate. Data from the Secretary of State shows that in both 2018 and 2022, Republican and Democratic voters turned out at high rates, often above 75%, while non-affiliated voters (NAVs), who now make up the largest single bloc, voted at substantially lower rates, often below 50%.
In 2022, Democrats and Republicans each represented about one-third of registered voters, but Democratic turnout reached 78.5% compared to the GOP’s 82.8%. However, the lower participation of NAVs, despite their numerical strength, has consistently meant their impact on the final result is muted. Efforts by Republican candidates to appeal to NAVs and moderate Democrats have thus far failed to deliver statewide victories.
Kotek’s Standing
While Governor Tina Kotek has not yet announced her plans for 2026, her approval ratings may weigh on Democratic prospects. According to a 2025 Statista ranking of U.S. governors, Kotek’s approval rating stood at 47%, placing her in the lower tier nationally. Her disapproval rating of 45% signals potential vulnerability, particularly if dissatisfaction among independents and moderate Democrats persists. Still, her numbers are notably higher than those of her predecessor, Kate Brown, whose final years in office were marked by growing public frustration.
Drazan Launches Second Campaign
On October 27, 2025, State Senator Christine Drazan officially launched her second campaign for governor, pledging to restore “opportunity, accountability, and prosperity to every corner of the state.” Speaking to a crowd of workers in downtown Portland, Drazan framed her candidacy as a movement anchored in the resilience of ordinary Oregonians. Drawing from her personal upbringing in Klamath Falls and the economic hardships her family faced, she emphasized values of hard work, community, and perseverance. Drazan criticized Oregon’s current leadership, promising to lower taxes, streamline regulations, address public safety, and rebuild the state’s economy. “Our governor may be in charge, but her state is out of control,” she declared, vowing to make Oregon the best state in the nation to start a business, raise a family, and get a world-class education. Her early entry into the race signals a clear intention to build on her strong 2022 showing and consolidate support among conservatives and swing voters alike.
Danielle Bethell Enters the Race
Marion County Commissioner Danielle Bethell became the first to file for the 2026 Republican primary for governor, officially launching her candidacy on September 22, 2025. In a statement on her campaign website, Bethell painted a picture of an Oregon in crisis, marked by homelessness, closed businesses, and repeated public safety and infrastructure failures, and presented herself as a grounded executive ready to turn crisis into progress. “While others debate theory, I’ve balanced budgets, negotiated contracts, and kept public safety systems funded,” Bethell stated, citing her five years of experience governing one of Oregon’s largest and most diverse counties.
Bethell emphasized the importance of real-world experience over political ambition, highlighting her work with wildfire survivors, addiction counselors, and rural mayors, as well as her advocacy for infrastructure and housing. She framed Marion County, a blend of urban and rural communities, as a model for the kind of balanced, results-focused governance she hopes to bring to Salem. “I’m not an off-the-shelf candidate,” she said. “I haven’t spent my life climbing the political ladder. I’ve been in the trenches.”
Paul Romero Joins Republican Primary
U.S. Navy veteran Paul Romero officially entered the 2026 Republican primary for governor on September 20, 2025. A resident of Roseburg, Romero describes himself as a political outsider and lifelong public servant whose campaign is grounded in restoring liberty, rebuilding trust, and returning power to everyday Oregonians. “Oregon doesn’t need more political theater. It needs a bold course correction,” he said.
Romero’s platform centers on shrinking the size of government, reducing taxes, and prioritizing parental rights and individual liberty. Drawing on his military service and experience as an educator and father, he says Oregon’s leadership has grown too bureaucratic and disconnected from the people it serves. He is particularly critical of government overreach in education, taxation, and regulation, arguing that Oregon families, not policymakers, should determine their futures.
“Our schools are no longer focused on academic excellence but on ideological agendas,” Romero said, vowing to re-center Oregon’s public institutions on freedom, responsibility, faith, and family. His campaign adds another distinct voice to a growing Republican primary field.
Kyle Duyck Adds Scientific and Grassroots Perspective
Genomics researcher Kyle Duyck entered the Republican primary for governor on September 15, 2025, filing from Cornelius. His campaign emphasizes Oregon’s agricultural heritage, transparency in emerging technologies, and restoring community-first governance. Duyck’s family has farmed Oregon’s land for more than a century, a legacy he intertwines with his scientific credentials in genomics, biology, and computational research.
Duyck presents himself as both a grassroots candidate and a technologist, what he calls a “peaceful Second American Revolutionary”, offering solutions informed by both heritage and cutting-edge insight. He has spoken publicly about advanced technologies with far-reaching implications, including revelations about national security tools and biomedical data oversight. Though unconventional, Duyck’s candidacy focuses on empowering citizens, promoting transparency, and challenging centralized control. “Oregon’s future belongs to its people, not its bureaucracies,” his campaign states, reflecting a platform that blends scientific inquiry, constitutional principles, and personal independence.
David Burch Files Candidacy
David Burch, a Republican who previously ran for governor in 2022, has filed to run again in the 2026 GOP primary according to the Oregon Secretary of State’s office. While Burch has not issued a formal campaign announcement or launched a website as of this writing, public information from his previous run described him as a strong proponent of individual rights and limited government. His plans for the 2026 cycle remain undeclared.
Looking Ahead to 2026
With Governor Tina Kotek eligible for reelection but not yet formally declared, both parties are positioning for a potentially open or contested race. Republicans are expected to build on Drazan’s relatively strong 2022 showing, the best for a GOP candidate since 2010. Still, the party faces structural hurdles: a shrinking base in Portland’s suburbs, persistent deficits in vote-rich urban centers, and the challenge of uniting moderates, conservatives, and independents under a single statewide message.
Whether 2026 will break the Democratic hold on the governor’s office depends on several factors: candidate quality, national political trends, turnout among NAVs, and the ability of Republicans to win over disaffected moderates. With Oregon’s political identity still leaning blue, the GOP’s road to Mahonia Hall remains steep—but not impossible.
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