5/29/2024
Salem, OR. – Official Release: Today, Governor Tina Kotek issued a statement in response to the June revenue forecast:
“Oregon’s economy continues to be stable and productive. We have made meaningful progress on issues of top concern for Oregonians and worked to move our economy in the right direction. I look forward to continuing to partner with the legislature to focus on meeting people’s needs in every part of the state, from housing to safe schools to behavioral health services.”
The revenue forecast from the Office of Economic Analysis can be accessed at: https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/pages/forecastecorev.aspx
The report addresses changes in revenues over the last few years and the Office of Economic Analysis’ projections that a return to historic trends will occur in 2025-2027.
“The overall revenue outlook has been increased modestly relative to the March 2024 forecast. Personal and corporate income tax collections are tracking somewhat above expectations. Longer term, the outlook for income growth has been revised upwards by around one percentage point. Despite these small revisions, their will not be significant revenue gains during the current biennium. Even excluding the payment of the kicker credit, General Fund revenues were expected to be relatively unchanged when compared to the 2021-23 budget period. The unprecedented revenue boom seen during tax year 2021 is behind us, with collections expected to revert back to their long-term trends. Traditional gains in General Fund collections are expected to resume in the 2025-27 biennium and beyond. The primary downside risk facing the near-term revenue forecast is the uncertain future of the nationwide economic expansion. Should high interest rates, federal policy woes or economic weakness among our trading partners derail the U.S. economy, the expected growth in Oregon’s tax collections will not come to pass.”
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